Don’t put your hard earned money on…

Gambling has been a part of my life in some form of an other since a very young age. Started early on from playing dice for lunch money to betting the Patriots every Sunday with the local point shaving bookies to after school poker games in high school. In my gambling manifesto, when I hang it up, when I’m finished with this roller coaster of highs and lows, chapter one, page one will read “Don’t put your hard earned money on women or heavyweights… unless they’re dogs.”

MMA betting lines have come a long way. The sport is ever evolving and changing with the times and trends, fortunately for bettors Vegas has been a little late to the party. Finding an edge or a bad line in a fight used to be a lot easier. The hardcore fans/bettors used to be bargain shopping, finding under valued name brand up and coming fighters for clearance bin prices. Fighters that grew the sport like Ronda Rousey and Conor Mcgregor has sucked a lot of valve out of these lines. If anything favorites has been over valued. Paying out the nose for big names like GSP, Cain Velasquez, and obviously Ronda Rousey.

“Don’t put your hard earned money on women or heavyweights… unless they’re dogs.”
I say it all the time half jokingly because it gets a laugh, but volatility and unpredictability in picking winners is more prevalent in women’s and heavyweights than any other division and it’s not close. Having a one of them in a parlay is asking for trouble.

So guess what I’m going to be doing this weekend?
That’s right… Max betting a heavy weight favorite. The Bellator Circus is back in town with a hail mary match up between Fedor Emelianenko and still relevant fighter Matt Mitrione. So much history and memories of the great stoic Fedor smashing opponents and grabbing submissions with ease. Conversely Mitrione might be most famous for being a goofball on the ultimate fighter, sporting the world’s worst hematoma on his eye, or getting d’arce choked by Brendan Schaub. For some reason, in 2017, they’re fighting each other. Lines open as Mitrione just a -150 favorite. The legend of Fedor may be the only thing keeping it from opening up as a -250 favorite. I would expect the closing line to look at lot closer to that. It’s a different game now, like I said earlier in the article. “the sport is ever evolving and changing…”

Meathead has his deficiencies of course, but the point is he is still active and successful as far as heavy weights are concerned. His departure from the UFC was not because if a lack of performance but of contract disputes. The man wants to get paid… and what better way than to beat arguably the Greatest fighter of all time in Fedor Emelianenko. I think Fedor is making a big mistake by taking this fight. Meathead has surprisingly active counter punching ability and a knack for slipping out of range of heavy hands. Not only is this a poor style match up but I think it’s bad timing as well. Mitrione is putting together a little winning streak with this new chapter in his career, while Fedor is grasping at the tail end of his. It’s too much for a man whose already poured his heart and soul into MMA, I’m not sure he has enough left to give a sport that demands so much.

Close your eye(s), and take Matt Mitrione -150.

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