One weekend, two cards, two parlays

As of right now (Thursday 6/22/17 8:09am) there are still almost 900 available tickets for Bellator’s biggest ever event… lol. But fuck it I’m excited. Maybe it’s the summertime, maybe it’s the Mayweather vs. Mcgregor news, or maybe it’s the summertime some more, but this weekend’s fights between the biggest Bellator event ever and some random little UFC card have me certifiably jacked up. Not to mention the betting opportunities on these cards with lesser known and under rated fighters that come with Bellator and UFC fight night cards. Short and sweet breakdowns and highlights.

Saturday night Bellator is hosting two events on the same night. “Bellator NYC” and “Bellator 180″… they’re called prelims in the real world, but thank god you don’t have to buy two tickets, because clearly people aren’t even buying tickets to one event! Anyways for people who can’t get enough of men in their underwear fighting to the death like myself you should be excited about this these events.

Chinzo Machida (Elder sibling of former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion and avid urine drinker Lyoto Machida) is fighting 6-0 undefeated James Gallagher (who may or may not be Conor Mcgregor’s younger sibling)
Bellator is making chicken salad out of chicken shit with this fight. Young loudmouth in joggers and a $60 hard part haircut from Ireland vs. a dime a dozen old Brazilian with a recognizable last name. Great work from the match makers and I love that they’re putting their young guns in a position to show out on this stage. I’m leaning towards the new breed with a fire in his belly, I’ll take Gallagher by late ground and pound tko. (Not a bet)

Heather Hardy 0-0, never heard of her, making her MMA debut, nothing much to say here except she’s kinda hott and I hope she wins because she’s kinda hott.

Ryan Bader vs Phil Davis
A rematch of a super boring fight but I’m falling for it. Both guys have made strides in their striking since then and when you see two high level wrestlers get in cage together that’s what generally separates the winner from loser. Not much to say for analysis on how the fight goes down other than if it stays standing, which I think it will, I look to see Bader with more volume and more power. I could see him getting loose putting some combos together in the second & third rounds, turning up the pressure late and walking away 29-28 on the cards. (def not a bet)

Aaron fucking Pico vs. Zach Freeman
Couldn’t tell you much about this other than “finally.” The rumors of Pico coming to MMA have been spreading since he hit puberty and won a bunch of medals and wrestling championships all over the world. Another young gun put in a position to succeed on a big stage. Again, I don’t know much about this fight, but what I do know is Scott Coker is no dummy and I would surmise Freeman has some poor take down defense. When it comes to young fighters under the bright lights it’s hard say with certainty that they will be worth the hype. In this case it feels legit and I’m excited to see him in action. I would say 30-27 on the cards and Aaron Pico picks up his first ever MMA victory.

Lorenz Larkin vs Douglas Lima
So funny that in his first fight since leaving the UFC Lorenz Larkin will be the welterweight champion of Bellator. When you compare level of competition and on top of that successes against that level, it’s blatantly obvious who the better fighter is. Larkin is criminally underrated and a shame he left the UFC, talk about big fish in a little pond. He is going to be putting a beating on Lima, I wouldn’t be surprised to see him end this fight in the second round after a mauling.
First bet of the night, Lakin -180.

Fedor vs. Meathead
I already went thru this fight the first time it was going to happen and you’re getting an even better price tag this time around.
Meathead -125

Parlaying Larkin -180 and Meathead -125 pays +180 will be my only bet on the night

I know it’s not much, the card as a whole is not show stopping. But Bellator is clearly doing the best they can with what they’ve got and that’s enough for me to sit my ass on the couch with some cold miller lites and a few leaves of the devil’s lettuce. Nothing I want more than a nice quiet Saturday night after a morning of yard work and an afternoon of hacking around the golf course; I’m very much looking forward to it. On top of that we get dessert on Sunday night! Again, it’s not much but a full weekend of decent fights is as good as one night of great fights as far as degenerate gambling is concerned.

BJ Penn has not been BJ Penn for about as long as Fedor has not been Fedor. I guess if you’re going to fight for way too long you might as well fight an other old fuck. Dennis Siver is just as old and just as tired as the 38 year old Prodigy. The two grown ass men step into the octagon with 60 fights between the two and just one win combined in the last four years. So fucking what? By this point in the weekend I’ve watched 21 fights so I’m not complaining. I am struggling to find a way for BJ to look good here. If they keep it standing I think Siver is still the faster and harder hitting striker, if BJ can get Siver down and hold him there he can find success. At this point in his career I find it hard to believe he’s doing much in the way or wrestling and Siver is not very technical but he makes up for it with strength and size. I gotta look one way here, I have had a great time betting against Penn in his last three fights and I’m not going to stop now. Give me Siver -220
P.S. over/under on spinning heel kicks by Siver is at 11.5

Main Event, Michael Chiesa vs Kevin Lee
There are some lines that make me think I’m missing something. When the lines first became available Chiesa opened at -110 to Lee’s -120. Without thinking twice I laid a nice wager on the underdog before he became the favorite. Very proud of myself for beating the line movement I said to myself “Glad I got the straight bet on now, I’ll parlay him and someone else probably by the weekend.” I sure did beat the line movement, problem is it moved the wrong fucking way. People are actually betting Kevin Lee! What am I missing here? I don’t like to play MMA Math, look at the styles, look at the level of competition, look at the strides both fighters have/haven’t made recently. Even yo momma knows! Is that all it takes to sway the johnny come lately Conor ball washers to lay hard earned money on? Some goofy glasses and matching outfit along with some rehearsed shit talk and a press conference scuffle. Let’s get back to the records, before the hype, before Ariel Helwani, before “yo momma.” Professional since 2008 Micheal Chiesa has just one legit loss on his record. In 2013 he lost to Jorge Masvidal who could be fighting for the welterweight title if he could have gotten Demian “Jansport” Maia off his fucking back for 5 minutes. Basically what I’m saying is that that loss years ago is nothing to scoff at. His other loss was a doctor stoppage against Joe Lauzon and he was kicking his ass till the cut was deemed too bad to continue. I don’t know who is more under rated this weekend, Chiesa or Larkin. Either way I love both guys. Both of em have fought and beat better levels of competition and look good doing it. Kevin Lee has put together the most unimpressive 14-2 record imaginable. Including losing to the toughest opponent he has faced in Al Iaquinta… who Chiesa choked out in the first round but we don’t like MMA Math around here so that’s not worth getting into. Lee hasn’t done enough in the octagon for me to separate himself from middle of the pack lightweights. He striking is not the cleanest, and it’s not like he’s getting by on power over technique because he’s not the hardest hitter either. His game plan is wrestling to submission attempts and it shows on the feet. And guess what? That doesn’t get fans dick’s hard! It’s not the UFC’s fault for not promoting him and it’s not Areil Helwani’s fault no one is clambering for him to be on the MMA Hour. “No one cared who I was until I put on the mask.” and that mask is some Coachella outfit, a mouth full of shit talk, topped off with a press conference scuffle. Well it worked, you have a main event that people are talking about. Problem is you might have gone and bit off more than you can chew. You want the attention, you want the eyeballs, and you want the big bucks? You gotta to deliver the goods homie! I expect just as quickly as we watched Kevin Lee turn himself into a showman outside the cage, I think he will try to emulate that image inside the cage… and that is not the fighter he is. He’s a young man so I should expect to see some improvements in his stand up but to getting to the comfort and technique level of Chiesa is not going to happen over night. All the while Maverick is also improving fight to fight. I’m not saying Lee isn’t tough, he’s in the UFC of course he is… but Chiesa is a grrrriiiiinder. That camp he comes from in Washington is not afraid of some hard as fuck sparring. You’re striking is gonna come a long way when you are used to taking shots like that in the gym. If the fight turns into a the a fire fight or a show for the fans, Chiesa isn’t afraid to get burned by the flames and Lee ain’t about that life. Not only that Chiesa has the same background as Lee when it comes to wrestling and submission grappling. You want to go down the list of guys Maverick has submitted vs Lee’s list and you’ll see the kind of high level chain wrestling and grappling Chiesa is bringing to the table. He’s better anywhere the fight goes. I have a hard time see Lee winning this fight outside of a one punch KO that lands on the button. He’s not going to beat Maverick on points and he’s not going to get the sub. There’s just way more ways Micheal Chiesa can walk away with the W and I think he serves Lee his first ever submission loss.

Dennis Siver -220 and Micheal Chiesa +110 parlay pays +205 will be my only bet of the night

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